CONSUMERS ARE EXPECTING MORE MENU PRICE INFLATION AND RESTAURANTS MIGHT GIVE IT TO THEM Menu-price inflation is creeping up again, and most restau - rant operators expect to raise prices over the next six months due to tariffs. Consumers are expecting just that. By Jonathan Maze
C onsumers in 2025 remain ful of the impact of tariffs and expect further price increases at restaurants as a result. They appear to be correct on that front, at least according to surveys from Restaurant Business sister company Technomic. scarred by the post-pandemic inflationary period and are fear - According to the survey, 62% of con - sumers expect price increases over the next six months. That’s almost the same percentage of restaurant oper- ators—61%--who believe menu prices will increase over that period, at least due to tariffs. Evidence already suggests this is hap -
pening. “We’re starting to see menu in - flation kick back up again,” Rich Shank, senior principal with Technomic, said at the FSTEC restaurant technology conference in Orlando. Food-away-from-home prices have risen 3.9% over the past 12 months, according to federal data released last week. By comparison, food-at-home prices are up 2.7%. Overall inflation is up 2.9%. Maybe most importantly: Average hourly earnings are up 3.7%. Average weekly earnings are up 3.4%. Prices in restaurants, in other words, are ex - ceeding wage and earnings growth. “The challenge we’re experiencing is the fact that inflation in other seg -
ments has actually cooled a lot quicker over the last several quarters than in the restaurant space,” Shank said. “It’s problematic to say the least, because people are becoming less able to afford what we’re offering.” “We’re actually moving in the opposite direction of where we want to be right now,” he added. Consumers are more aware of price increases, and perhaps to a fault, which is largely the result of the post-pan - demic inflationary period combined with social media. Consumers think prices are going up more than they are, but they’re not wrong that prices are going up. “They’re noticing these things much
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